And information interviews - A stock liquidity crisis

 September 17 and hearing interviews - A stock liquidity crisis
netizens, Hello everybody!
And telecommunications network theme Sharon September 17 15:00-16:00 Invited State Securities Chief Economist House of gold rocks and surfers.
theme: A liquidity crisis
shares as will be the topic throughout the video, text, live, stay tuned! (13: 06)
and Information Network: went to the The theme of Sharon's time per week, and today we are pleased to go to the State Securities chief economist at Golden Rock teacher. Today we talk about Sharon's theme is 2000 points after Powei, A stock valuation and its trend, the mobile of the crisis. for a major adjustment since the 6124 points, Gold Rock teacher has his own unique understanding, we hope to bring his knowledge of the market to analyze with you and help you avoid risks and seize market opportunities. golden teacher you tell us the trend of the market today, and today they fell to 1922 points, almost the lowest point in closing, your view of the recent rapid market decline what? is the last one conducted in the fall or trend? (15: 13) < br> Golden Rock: I think the market has started from the surface into the mood we are waiting for the panic selling, the original I expect to happen in October, is now ahead of schedule. while we wait for this fall is the second half kicked off the bear market . If the bear market of the first half to play the is probably a good thing. Fortunately, where? it may be due to decreases in too deep, and shorten the length of a bear market. (15: 13)
Chinese stock market has a regular phenomenon called on China, the conclusion to the contrary, two-thirds of the time in a bear market, bull market in time for a third time. This gives us a concept, an investment in this market you can not adhere to the people live in long-term investment values, inherent in this market must accept the special value, which means I speak with you in April, recreation, leisure and then say in August, because in a mood of the marketplace, leisure is the highest investment level. investments means the highest level in such a marketplace, one-third of the time to choose bold leisure, bear market, the desire to restrain myself, that is, three no, do not listen do not buy do not look, there are no to October, has now started turning back. (15: 19)
and News Network: Do you think a bear market decline in a few days ago has just kicked off, since it is just a prologue, is not more miserable until the fall to maintain After some time back, why now turning its head? (15: 19)
Golden Rock: If you see the present state of the stock market decline, may we all know, 20% as a step, break 2000 points, the next point is 1600 points. but then fell below 1600 points, then it might be bad luck, and I think it will continue to fall. At this stage we may be entering a long-term investment philosophy, looking for you can buy, but do not look at the stock. This When I borrow the words of a master, known as pain and forget that you have bought the stock. this time from a new angle, singing the last song, big deal and start over. (15: 19)
and Information Network: a teacher who made it very poetic . you just said is a bear market in the first half and second half-owned the first bank shares fall down, this two-day decline in banking stocks, some experts have attributed the reduction in the deposit reserve ratio and the Lehman bankruptcy. (15: 19) < br> Golden Rock: Bank shares in the second quarter report, in accordance with the profit contribution by the industry, the profit contribution of bank shares reached 49.4%. I think this is the stock market risk thermometer, when the profit contribution of banking stocks account for this market one-third less time that it is back to normal. In other words, our 37 degree heat as a normal human questions, the bank's profit contribution must be reduced to below 37 degrees, when the bank's profits in an industry accounting for half of the stock market, which means that most other industries and profit into a loss, when other sectors of the market loss and profit pressures to form, we see that the bear market of the first half. (3:20 p.m. )
bear the first half because of price controls led to a loss of policy, policy-related losses lead to loss of business competing games, such as the leading state-owned enterprises in China to niche markets, it began to appear on a particular cycle, that is, the middle of everyone in the bear market loss of competition policy competition license. and then to the future in exchange for monopoly profits, which is state-owned business cycle. When this happens, when an industry policy-related losses occurred, the industry of a structural change occurs that will save the state-owned banks, at least he will not save the state-owned enterprises of the loans, but loans to private enterprises it will break, at least not to save private enterprises, which formed the industry in a competitive industry, there have been people back into the country. So the stock loss accounted for state-owned enterprises on the stock in terms of a true loss is false losses, some people actually put up the profit as a loss reserve, ready to report on future profits. We know that the loss of oil have been found false, it is a typical case. (15: 20) < br> When we see this stage and they will know that this loss of business competition environment, private enterprises and quasi-private enterprises will have the edge of bankruptcy, and bankruptcy will be back in the arms of banks, so We see bank profits in the stock market which is the proportion of the risk of the thermometer, the thermometer was now finally ready to cool down. (15: 37)
and information network: that is, the next step we will from loss of private enterprises and state-owned enterprises of pressure on policy-related losses to erode bank profits, bank profits will plummet? (15: 37)
Golden Rock: bank profits means that from now entered a period of steady decline. But, in this steady decline, behind the accumulation of bank credit risk assets growing, that is, the growing bad debt in the profits in decline. This constitutes the main tone of the second half of the major sectors of the characteristics of a bear market. (15: 37)
and News Network: But according to the present point of view of the industry, the first bank valuation is the lowest price-earnings ratio of 10 times less; second, like you said, in the steady decline in bank profits , since this will still maintain the lowest valuation, why is falling it will appear tragic? (15: 37)
Golden Rock: When we repeated the stock market's valuation of the discussion, I think most people are caught a common-sense errors, we use the price-earnings ratio and book value is measured by a market valuation levels. earnings and book value is a measure of market valuation level people on this issue into a confusion. For example, in the United States every year, select a model for election funds, each one shows his concern about the stock out, the highest elected 50. selected results of a phenomenon that occurs every year, is elected by the prevailing market rate is more than twice the price-earnings ratio and book value. The concept of illustration, that if we can be able to find the valuation of earnings and book value of the concept, then the best in the market should be the primary investors because his heart no distractions. but in fact we have seen, people are not picking offset mainstream investment goods, he looks for the high valuation of the higher growth markets, value investing is the mainstream view of Wall Street. (3:41 p.m. )
way we look at why and under what circumstances an overvalued market will continue to rise, the market will be an underestimate turned on. This time we went back to a basic theoretical concept, is the market bears transfer cattle and beef is based on what kind of transfer bears the sequence and the traditional sequence completed. The Chinese stock market is the traditional sequence of what? I have always put the market into three levels: emotional side, capital and fundamentals. (15: 41) < br> 05 Year's bull market started the moment, you can see the fundamentals of listed companies is just turn up for the knee, that bears the start point will switch to cattle occurred in the fundamentals of the startup. and then we will see, the stock market began to rise, institutional investors began to intervene, but the capital side had gradually improved. funds face occurred mainly to see what improvements we? mainly to see the funds and positions. this time we look at the first stage of the bull market in 2006, retail investors participation is very low, only 3.15 million in 2006. emotional side is usually significantly approaching the stage of retail, this time we look at cattle turn bear, the bull market continues to heat up the situation of .08 at the end of why I have been bullish, because the capital surface is not reversed, the fundamentals began to change, but had little effect. I tell you in the beginning of the year, that is, a reversal of capital side, the high emotional start to the April, do not listen to people do not buy do not look, at this time .4 emotional side reversed was reversed in January look at the fundamentals, so we saw the cows turn bears the traditional sequence, is the financial side, emotional, Fundamentals. (15: 41)
now we waiting for? We look at the valuation? wrong, we look at the fundamentals of the inflection point. how to see it? depends on macroeconomic trends, depending on the global financial markets, the financial contribution depends on the degree of financial shares dropped to about one-third, to see the threat of inflation has left us. Therefore, I tell you, back in October, repent and let everyone back in October to see the four indicators: (15: 41)
First, the Dow is still above the 13,000 points next. Second, the bank shares continue sharp three quarterly or transformed. Third, the oil price is 100 dollars or 150 U.S. dollars or so. Fourth, CPI at what level. This is our look at the problem. ( 15: 41)
and Information Network: Now you mentioned these four points, two points after the requirements have been met, and the previous two points, the Dow has been the breakdown of the 11,300 points, you think it is valid Powei ? Do you see how Lehman's impact on global financial markets? (15: 42)
Golden Rock: Lehman Brothers, this thing broke out, I was writing an article 3. At that time I wrote, Ministry of Finance and the U.S. Government to save Lehman? not, it means that he and Bear Stearns as to history. I thought this question, frankly, very painful feeling. We in the United States for many years, Ray Man has been a very respected, and this is I will give you an idea. When many people talking about subprime mortgages, many people do not realize that the subprime crisis is long over. Now is not the subprime crisis, the Bells Registration is due to collapse of the subprime mortgage crisis, subprime mortgage crisis, the market size of 1.67 trillion U.S. dollars the total issue, a total of ten days before this product, so this is a small market. (15: 42)
this time we see Fannie and Freddie , means that the market began to enter the market from 1.67 trillion 12,13 trillion market. Lehman Brothers is the leading fixed-income product market, when we look at five major investment banks when the difference between fixed-income products to the market, Lehman over the years has been the first in the world. Therefore, it is the market value standard. (15: 42)
and this market be? light dollar fixed-income products, not including any derivative instruments, the total market capitalization of more than 30 trillion, even in 40 trillion, 30m40 trillion between the fixed-income securities and derivatives constitute the basis of the largest securities market, that is, when we look at derivative securities markets, the market has three basic securities, bonds, currencies , stock, debt structure is a five-wave four sinks, which is derived from the securities market Banbiheshan .30 m40 trillion in underlying securities, when the market crisis, he is not the subprime crisis, is a comprehensive debt crisis, but also is the global chain based on the debt wavered. (15: 42)
when we see bonds by commercial banks, insurance as a prudent investment products, investment products that sound like Bank of Bahrain year bankruptcy. this time we should know that this market was an even greater crisis behind traffic, so the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers opened the prelude to the global debt crisis. We can compare the vivid, the sub-prime crisis is only tip of the iceberg, and now the world With the debt crisis of the fall of Lehman Brothers, into a hideous face, this time the U.S. economy is just as slick as the Titanic, but in the calculation of the time of its demise. When decision makers look very clear to this trend, so the U.S. did not hesitate to start a socialism in our view, rescue measures are very, very decisive, very decisive. In this context, we have to admire the courage and wisdom of American policy makers. ( 15: 42)
and telecommunications networks: Why he did not save Lehman Brothers, since there is such a big impact? (15: 42)
Golden Rock: it is now not save. He could not save Lehman, He can let JP Morgan to save Bear Stearns, can save the Merrill Lynch Bank of America, allowing the Treasury to save the the severity of bankruptcy behind. (15: 42)
and News Network: Because it's stall too. (15: 42)
Golden Rock: The chain of things, you saved it, it means never get out of yourself into a quagmire. (15: 42)
and Information Network: What do you think of this event on the Chinese financial stocks, banking stocks fell also affected, because they held Lehman bonds and other U.S. bonds. ( 15: 43)
Golden Rock: the collapse of Lehman is not directly impact on China. It's impact will be through three channels, first, a considerable number of the bond rating, which means that when these bonds Start downgrade, if we hold these bonds, we have to share the loss. Second, it provides structured financial products for many the ultimate security, which means that when the ultimate guarantor did not, and then had to provide insurance intermediaries to the end of the product have to assume this risk. In other words, I sell you a capital preservation product, capital preservation is the preservation of Lehman, but Lehman fell, you come to me, is my risk. This When China's financial institutions, including funds involved. Third, when Lehman Brothers is down, the rapid decline of the global bond markets, which will be derivatives magnification factor suddenly reduced, including Lehman Brothers fall to do a long term strategy, now fall has been as delicate nature of the transaction, which means fall is still trading on the market must be open, which means closing means more losses. This is a financial shock, this shock was just beginning. Therefore, in this sense, the Bank of China shares fall Although not directly related to Lehman Brothers, but it opened off the second half of China's bear market. at the same time had to watch the future trend of the global debt crisis, When we look at the Latin American debt crisis of that year to Brazil, Argentina devastating blow to these countries to know that this depth and breadth of the debt crisis, we have no way to make any estimate. (15: 43)
and Infonet: Recently the media has been worried about China's foreign exchange reserves more than 300 billion dollars in U.S. bonds, including subprime mortgage bonds, do you think the impact is not the first time by these bonds? (15: 43)
Golden Rock: I believe our investment in bonds this level, the vast majority of investment should be the federal debt. Lehman is just an intermediary and does not constitute the final sale of the bonds themselves. Another is the Ministry of Finance in the security of this stuff. this part of the debt I estimate that about 2 trillion available in developing countries. If we put the entire foreign exchange reserves as a plate, you can see all of the world's foreign exchange reserves, 75% m80% is held by developing countries, among which 75% m80% held a variety of products denominated in U.S. dollars, accounting for 65%. so that we count as one account, is the global foreign exchange reserves of developing countries to hold dollars in various securities more than 50%. This side will be involved in anything associated with Lehman. (15: 43)
and information network: I see mentioned in your blog, the U.S. government will use the output of this crisis, inflation, pass crisis, do you think the U.S. government will continue to provide such guarantees, it was considered the , but the U.S. government rescue the original . to protect their credit, to be able to pass the crisis, to be able to export inflation. So when we see a rope hanging from a number of countries. Although the source of this rope, which is the source of the crisis in the U.S., but as long as the U.S. pulled with this constantly jumping rope. In the end, when the rope hanging in the other countries fall, and this time the crisis in the United States may disappear. (15: 43)
this time many people may The United States is conspiring to say, the financial matter of fact there is no conspiracy, finance is always Yangmou, paper to measure any one industry, no one industry can have such a high level of paper, as the real economy transactions, two or three sheets of paper, a dozen sheets of paper up so thick, so thick in any financial transaction. So industrial and political intrigue and the terminology, but the financial Yangmou done to perfection, that is what I tell you, but you still have to assume you may be reluctant to assume The. modern financial industry is the highest level of political mall, in such case, we have made clear the card, I did the source of the crisis, but now the crisis has occurred, regardless of why I have to be able to live, It is a desire to make a living, when I lived I could save you, when I would not last, you can not live, it is the financial logic of the United States now. If you said the truth is unreasonable, then we think there no more reasonable? not. You say you are the culprit, we kill you, he said I killed you, you die, now you let me live, you may die. This is a choice now In such a choice which, we should be optimistic that China did not last in this chain. (15: 43)
and Information Network: did not you? (15: 43)
Golden Rock: China is only From the opposite point of view, the Chinese economy experienced an unprecedented good opportunity, it is relative. but the difficulty is in front of us, but we see that the U.S. faced the threat of inflation bold rate cut, they should know that our tightening wrong. this time, as inflation in the global spread of the troubles, which country to tighten their economic entities, and to the equivalent of you to dig a pit, so the troubles go out into the flow of your body. So, instead you say troubles lead to your body, not as their own it pulled up, water less than me. this time, some local people do will be the threat of inflation, and who is not working to make up who you are, than to allow our investors, production persons, entrepreneurs have to bear the risk, consumer subsidies, and subsidies to consumers is not the Chinese consumers, as well as countries around the world proletarian revolution will not sing again, to unite the world proletariat. I believe we will not do so foolishly. Therefore, the tightening policy should now draw to an end. We should go all out possidetis growth, saving the stock market, convert our current macro-policy tone. (15: 56)
and News Network: Now that the central bank to lower the market rate is the end of two tight monetary policy, but also that the stock market is good. But as usual we see the market down, how do you see? (15: 57)
Golden Rock: If we interpret the policy points out the part of bank profits, how to interpret the positive on the stock market? We look at the profits of the bank points out part of the enlarged part of the bank's liquidity in the banking Banbiheshan, it is Banbi liqueur short-term, because it hit the banks, mid-term good to save the small and medium banks, so this effect is being hidden in the panic selling. When we panic selling today as a long-term investment, Jiancang appropriate point in time, although I had said to wait until the end of October, but I tell you Jiancang time has been very close. But do not rush to say that rebound, and then Shigekura enter pickers should be like the beach, like a step back, look back to pick a few, you will see After two years you'll get today's planting. because there is a feature of Chinese stock market, or the half, turning the quadruple. (15: 57)
and information network: I see your blog, the view For one thing, the Chinese economy next year may enter stagflation, to about 8% by 2010, may also decline further. you are such a pessimistic economic expectations are not as tight to the cancellation policy may change a little bit? ( 15: 57)
Golden Rock: slight adjustments, but there will be a big adjustment. we look at the length of a two-year bull market, bear market, the length of at least three years. (15: 57)
and Information Network : fall too fast. should shorten the time a bear market. (15: 57)
Golden Rock: The bear market, we can have three rescue measures, we can shorten the time to shock, adhere to the current interest rate cut continue to cut interest rates, lowering the reserve ratio, this time we can give troubled businesses to a relaxed environment, it is necessary that we take the initiative to inject liquidity. (15: 57)
Second, do not worry about hot money, hot money inflows Now is the resources, because the time when the global chaos, this time to you where the hot money flows, hot money flowing in on the cold, so give you more cheap money, you can buy in the global scope of resources acquisition of assets. this time is a godsend. (15: 57)
Third, the stock market can not fall any further, in order to climb no other way, must pay with a money can open the Olympic Games stabilize the stock market, and open the stock market to stabilize the money the Olympic Games, three years after it opened an Olympics again. This is what I give you an account counted. If countries do not recognize you at this time the money is to change the your attitude, we have been pessimistic to the extreme, is that you do not believe I did not pay, this time to pay come in, stabilize the stock market. When you stabilize the stock market, but it is out of the money, you know the real reason is that stock prices What. the real reason is that our pursuit of CPI, at the expense of profits of listed companies, this time we are using a large-scale loss of policy to buy CPI, which is one of the largest Chinese history, face-saving projects, no longer did. ( 15: 57)
then sat down on the stock market which you will accept this idea, the thermometer on the stock market means that we will return to normal. (15: 58)
and News Network: But now we hear popular in a high-level view of the stock market is not good because the economy is not good, that is useless now to save the stock market, and now to save the economy after the stock market and other economic good will naturally good, is such a view. (15:58)
Golden Rock: this view is correct, but do not have this in itself does not look to the stock market, but also the money needed to 2000,3000 billion, if you are afraid of foreign hunters, want to save the stock market to foreign investors pulled in. require the reduction of a year or two, this problem resolved. Why should this matter against each other. In my mind, to save the stock market and save the economy is the one. can not say how because you like here, I'll do this to not do that. State great, can not say that relief can not save the economy also depends on what disaster rescue. So, I think it'll save the economy, the stock market but also save and rescue the source of the two institutions, One is the central bank, a Ministry of Finance. the Commission has done very well, wore so much infamy, I saw all criticize the SFC, which I have in mind for the Commission Mingbu Ping, because they do too much, If the only thing to do is that they should have launched the thing to launch, the GEM, stock index futures, what a train to push anything, these things have not really affect the stock market, the real impact of the stock market there are only two body attitude, the Ministry of Finance and central bank. In other words, when we see the U.S. bailout, you see which news reports have the name of the Commission Chairman, Ben Bernanke and Paulson will always be. (15: 58)
When we look at the current time of financial crisis, Hong Kong, Hong Kong's financial crisis, you hear anyone say that Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission? It was Joseph Yam, it is the Authority, equivalent to merging the Ministry of Finance and central bank institutions . The so-called can not let the Commission sit scolded, and it should come out, the. (15: 58)
Golden Rock: stock index futures from whatever point of view, are the market stabilizer. twists and turns, such as the rules of the game over Crane, in fact, it represents an image of Disney . But if only through Crane, who is going? your roller coaster? I sat once vowed never sat. but Disney is still going. because the market has a lot of games, so is Disney. the stock market the identity of the market, but the market can not only roller coaster. Therefore, the GEM, stock index futures, margin, market maker transactions, should be included in the market. (15: 58)
and News Network: I have noticed you said the liquidity crisis, admits there is a reason for you is the like you are against. (15: 58)
Golden Rock: I tell a joke. then the two mothers of a bed during the Cultural Revolution. mothers to have children, there is a maturity schedule for the birth, you take on the price time, he should know that she should concentrate on children, to have children when you do not have beds to solve the problem what is it? is to tell a pregnant mother more than ten years that I've let you all right? I think this is common sense errors . now mothers, with a bed, a hospital, have children, I think any one person, will not blame the child, and the not to have children of maternal maternal and child equal to strangle, and maternity beds keep meaningful? Therefore, the injection of liquidity, as we have no way to inject liquidity, when how to do it? is the mobilization of . bridge of money as I am now buying stocks, you are the past, change status and become the next investor, you and I to become your trading buy me 25 yuan 30 yuan, so you peace of mind to, and this is a simple change in trading rules. This change requires someone to bridge. of the bridge once bought this child, the child born in hand, I think most people could not bear the sight of the child, such as many people do not like girls, children are born out of the old curse, when children are born a cry, all his ideas have changed. (16: 10)
and News Network: Do you think the middle is not a broker should have a secondary offering? (16: 10)
Golden Rock: no money broker ah. (16: 10)
and Information Network: Central Bank and the Treasury to do this thing? (16: 10)
Golden Rock: Yes, this is the injection of liquidity, then set the time when someone might The more people buy, the more there is no more liquid is no one to buy, because he was worried about is that you put me in, to restore the split share structure, which is the market, 10)
and News Network: It is not the stabilization fund is two, one is then br> Golden Rock: I'll say this is resolved, will stabilize the market sentiment and resolve split share of the market into a full flow of the market, we calculate the value of this account is not? (16: 11)
At this point, and now this price, the rest of your will do two years later, three possible four Olympics. have long-term investment philosophy, we should have confidence in the country, if they do not have confidence, you stand up to retail investors, so that retail politics, which say are wrong. (16: 11)
and Information Network: Just like a skin-like, the state received money stock, you buy a stock, retail investors will buy 100 shares. I heard there are still such a high-level concerns, as you said, this funding is only then then went on to fall, he thought the bailout failure, damage government authority, he hoped that when the shot can lead to reversal of the bull market is to ensure the success of his rescue, rescue fails is stuck for a group of people, this is not no sense you? (16: 11)
Golden Rock: The hope is wrong. If that promise is really successful, that our market failure, and that we share reform failed. If our market, the Government want it it rose up, want it or it will fall, who said it was a normal market. I think that such comments do not represent the wisdom of policy makers, decision makers know the bull market increased stamp duty, although the discussion to improve the way we can . In the bull market increased stamp duty, stamp duty reduction in the bear market, from this perspective to understand the conclusion what is it? reduce stamp duty only confirmed that this is a bear market, which means lower stamp market continued to fall in as expected. If did not expect this outcome, it is the lack of basic judgments on the market. If the expected did not materialize, we ...